Every statistic we use on this website, paired with its primary source. If you think we've got something wrong, tell us at contact@stopthetriplelock.com.
Fact 1
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), as reported by the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
“The triple lock has pushed up spending on the state pension so that it now (2025–26) costs the government £12 billion more per year than the cost would have been if the state pension had been uprated in line with average earnings since 2011.”
Fact 2
Source: Calculated from the OBR's £12 billion annual estimate (£12bn ÷ 52 weeks = £230.8m).
Fact 3
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), as reported by the Resolution Foundation and OECD.
“State pension spending is now forecast to be £15.5 billion more by 2029-30 than if it had just carried on rising with earnings.”
Fact 4
Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies, citing the OBR volatility scenario.
“Under a more volatile economic environment the triple lock could cost an extra 1.5% of national income – or £44 billion in 2025–26 terms – on top of [an £80bn baseline rise by the 2070s].”
Fact 5
Source: OBR, widely reported (e.g. NIESR, OECD coverage).
Original 2010 projection: £5.2bn/year extra cost by the late 2020s. Current OBR estimate: £15.5bn/year by 2029–30 — roughly 3x the original forecast.
Fact 6
Source: Resolution Foundation.
“In the 15 years running up to its introduction (1997-98 to 2011-12), pensioner poverty rates fell by 15.8 percentage points. In the 12 years following the introduction of the Triple Lock pensioner poverty has risen by 2.3 percentage points.”
Fact 7
Source: ONS / Migration Observatory.
“An estimated 246,000 British citizens emigrated in the latest year, against 110,000 who returned. A little over half of British emigrants in 2025 were estimated to be aged between 16 and 34.”
Fact 8
Source: Migration Observatory.
“Net emigration of British citizens has increased since 2022, because of fewer British people moving (back) to the UK.”
Fact 9
Source: House of Commons Library.
“The triple lock was first introduced by the Coalition Government and came into effect in the 2011/12 financial year — following the policy's announcement in the June 2010 Budget.”
Fact 10
Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies.
“That ratchet effect has been particularly dramatic since the introduction of the triple lock, due to poor economic performance and the high level of economic volatility, with abysmal growth following the Great Recession, the Brexit referendum and the COVID-19 pandemic.”
The 2022 inflation spike specifically (which drove the largest single triple-lock uprating, 10.1%) coincided with post-pandemic supply disruption and the energy price shock following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Fact 11
Source: Tom Calver (Data Editor, The Times and The Sunday Times), via X.
“A reminder that baby boomers are expected to get back about 30% more from the state than they paid in — more than any other generation.”
Related context from the same thread: the typical 60-year-old has paid in £134k in NI.
Fact 12
Source: Same as #6.
Fact 13
Source: IFS: multiple publications, proposing a 'double lock' alternative. OBR: source of the £12bn/£15.5bn/£44bn figures, describing the triple lock as a substantial pressure on public spending. OECD: “The triple lock indexation of state pensions puts upward pressure on public expenditure and adds significant fiscal risks” and “unusually generous”. IMF: “The triple lock should be axed and the State Pension indexed to the cost of living.”
Fact 14
Source: DWP, Pensioners' Incomes Series, financial year ending 2024.
“The percentage of pensioners in receipt of income from a private pension was 70%. The average amount for those in receipt was £208 per week.”
Fact 15
Source: Centre for Ageing Better — reports workplace pension participation at 91% among those in professional occupations, reflecting the effect of auto-enrolment.
Fact 16
Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies, as reported by MoneyWeek.
“The state pension has increased in value by 89% since the implementation of the triple lock in 2011, almost 30% more than inflation (60%) and over 20% more than earnings (66%), according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.”
Fact 17
Source: Resolution Foundation — Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive.
“The most sensible way to keep the State Pension rising in line with the living standards of the rest of society is through a smoothed earnings link, rather than a random ratchet.”